Bigger Refunds, Bigger Motivation

When tax refunds jump by $1,000, buyers pay attention.

According to our research, the average federal tax refund for the 2026 filing season is projected to hit $4,151, up from around $3,151 the year before. What’s driving the increase? Retroactive tax cuts from the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” weren’t reflected in 2025 paychecks, so many Americans overpaid, and they’re getting that money back now.

Refund Season Just Got More Rewarding

Tax time has always been a motivator for car shoppers, but this year the stakes, and the refunds, are higher. That means real buying power is hitting bank accounts right now. The IRS started processing returns in late January, and most refunds are landing via direct deposit. Dealers that act early can win big with well-timed offers that speak to shoppers who are ready to make a move.

Who’s Getting More Back?

Buyers across the board are seeing more money in their pockets, but a few standout segments include parents, seniors, and tipped workers. The people doing the most important job in the world are getting some additional recognition in the form of a $200 increase to the Child Tax Credit this year, bringing it to a total of $2,200. Seniors (citizens aged 65 and above) across the country can expect to claim a new $6,000 deduction per person. And, overtime earners and tipped workers now have access to income-specific deductions. Finally, homeowners in high-tax states can benefit from an increased SALT cap of $40,000. For many, the extra cash could mean the difference between waiting and buying.

Car Buyers Have New Incentives

It gets better. For 2026, shoppers who finance a new personal-use vehicle may deduct up to $10,000 per year in loan interest, effectively lowering the true cost of ownership over time. The
vehicle must be new, U.S.-assembled, and financed after December 31, 2024, making this incentive especially appealing for buyers comparing monthly payments and long-term value. Even better, buyers who take the standard deduction can still claim this benefit, removing a common barrier and widening the pool of qualified shoppers. When combined with elevated tax refunds and competitive manufacturer offers, this deduction creates a powerful financial reason to buy sooner rather than later.

Commercial Buyers Still Win Too

Business owners still benefit from Section 179 deductions and bonus depreciation, especially on heavy-duty pickups, vans, and SUVs over 6,000 pounds GVWR. These provisions allow qualifying buyers to deduct a significant portion of eligible vehicles in the year they’re placed into service, rather than spreading the deduction out over several years

Make Your Message Matter with Strong

Shoppers are seeing bigger refunds. Strong helps you turn those refunds into real revenue. From creative campaigns and video to email, SEO, paid search, OTT, and more, we tailor every channel to capture buyer attention at the perfect time.
The money is coming. Let Strong help you meet it with a strategy that works.